Brinksmanship, belligerence and bracing for the worst

What will it take for North Korea's young, inexperienced leader to realise that his attempts to blackmail South Korea and its allies will not work and could instead put him on a slippery slope to ruin?

As his previous provocations, such as a nuclear test and missile launches, failed to intimidate Seoul and Washington, Kim Jong-un has started to play a new card - the shutdown of the Gaeseong industrial complex.

But he should be careful what he wishes for. The closure of the complex, widely seen as a symbol of inter-Korean cooperation and the last exchange link left between the two Koreas, could prove to be his undoing.

On April 9, the operation of the complex, located on the northern side of the inter-Korean border, ground to a halt as the North's 53,000 workers failed to report for work. It was the first time since its foundation in December 2004.

The previous day, Pyongyang announced that it would pull out all of its labourers from the industrial park and temporarily suspend its operation, citing a totally unpersuasive reason - the South's insults to its dignity.

The North said the future of the industrial estate depended on the attitude of South Korean authorities, suggesting that its move was designed to tame the new Seoul government.

Yet if Pyongyang expects Seoul to succumb to its pressure, it is totally mistaken. President Park Geun-hye made it clear that she would not repeat the past practice of offering rewards to Pyongyang for its bad behaviour.

Park needs to take a principled stance on the North's latest threat. If she plays her cards right, she can turn the ongoing crisis into an opportunity to tame the North's wayward young leader and reset the inter-Korean relationship.

To be sure, the closure of the industrial park would deal a devastating blow to the 123 South Korean companies that have factories there. Many of them could face bankruptcy should the complex remain idle for a prolonged period of time.

This would have a negative impact on the South Korean economy as well. According to reports, the economic losses the South would suffer due to the shutdown of the complex would amount to 6 trillion won.

Yet the damage the North would suffer would be more serious in relative terms. In the first place, the 53,000 North Korean workers would lose their jobs. The impoverished regime would also lose a major source of hard currency by biting the hand that feeds it.

The temporary suspension has already caused irrevocable damage to Pyongyang's credibility. The unilateral action, which constitutes a breach of the inter-Korean accord on the operation of the industrial park, has highlighted the danger of investing in the North.

Earlier this month, North Korea's Workers' Party announced the adoption of a new national strategy. The party's Political Bureau said the communist state would pursue economic development and nuclear power buildup simultaneously.

For economic development, the isolated and capital-strapped country needs foreign investment. Yet as Park pointed out, no country in the world would be willing to invest in a country that had no qualms about flouting international rules and business contracts.

When the young North Korean leader decided to play the Gaeseong card, he must have been fully aware of the risks involved. The fact that he has chosen to take the risk nevertheless shows how desperate he is to get concessions from Seoul and Washington.

But as long as he relies on reckless brinksmanship, he will never be able to get what he wants. Before it is too late, Kim should wake up and realise that there is nothing he can get through provocations and intimidation.

Now the Seoul government needs to brace for the worst-case scenario. It should provide full assistance to the affected companies to ensure that they stay afloat. Banks need to provide emergency loans to them to ease their financial difficulties.

Policy-makers also need to counter Pyongyang's attempts to amplify fear and anxiety among foreigners in and outside the country. North Korea has urged foreign residents in the South to prepare evacuation plans in case of war. It also told the foreign ministries of Russia and the UK that it could no longer guarantee the safety of their diplomats in Pyongyang. The Seoul government needs to advise them not to overreact to the North's war rhetoric.

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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2013/04/18/brinksmanship-belligerence-and-bracing-for-the-worst/