FUTURES
Trading on the Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX) for the rest of this year is expected to be limited, as market factors have been deemed unpredictable.
Kidakan Suwanathama, the senior vice-president for derivatives at Phillip Securities, said the fear of the US falling off a "fiscal cliff" and the seemingly endless euro-zone public debt crisis are influencing sentiment.
"When the capital market has no clear direction, trading volume in the futures market is relatively thin," he said.
Average trading on the TFEX in 2012 is 44,000 contracts a day, up from 40,000 a day last year, but the rate of increase has been slower than last year as more investors shift to common stocks.
"Growth has dipped to 7-8% this year compared with years before when growth in trading volume was always in double digits," said Mr Kidakan.
The TFEX expects trading will increase to 50,000 contracts a day next year, with the main trading on the SET50 index, single stock futures and gold futures.
But institutional investor trading on the TFEX has increased to 41% of total contracts from 32% a year ago, while retail investors have dipped to 51% from 61%, in line with the developed market's structure.
Mr Kidakan said the US government is expected to make a decision on the fiscal cliff by Christmas, which would improve market sentiment.
For technical trading, if the SET50 index stands above 885 points, sentiment is good and investors can take a long position.
The SET50 index closed yesterday at 869.72 points, up 0.27%.
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About the author
Writer: Nuntawun PolkuamdeePosition: Business Reporter
Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/25/thin-trading-on-tfex-predicted/
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