The man in Dubai should carefully assess the two Pitak Siam rallies, one held on October 28 and another scheduled for November 24, if he is to avoid putting Thailand as well as its political system at risk.
Thaksin Shinawatra appears to be the real target of anti-government messages, even though Pitak Siam leader Boonlert Kaewprasit has billed his street protests as an integral part of the opposition movement to Prime Minister Yingluck.
The Pitak Siam critique of the flaws of populism, such as the rice-pledging scheme, corruption, cronyism and ill-gotten gains amassed by government supporters, is nothing but a rehash of stories circulated by the People's Alliance for Democracy before the 2006 coup to oust Thaksin.
In 2005, the pro-Thaksin camp shrugged off the PAD as a gang of political bullies seeking change through undemocratic means. Thaksin saw his immense popularity as an invincible shield for his government.
In the final days of his leadership, he became a globetrotter seeking the support of the international community to safeguard Thai democracy.
The power seizure happened, however. And for the past six years, Thaksin has been trotting the globe in an attempt to find his way back home.
Thaksin, Yingluck and their supporters may see a repeat downfall if they refuse to factor in their opponents.
Just like the politically fatal mistake made by Thaksin in ignoring the PAD, Yingluck happens to be busy cultivating international ties in the weeks ahead of a showdown with Pitak Siam.
In the previous rally, Pitak Siam protesters surged to about 20,000 at the Royal Turf Club.
For the protest next Saturday, Boonlert said he would aim to mobilise a million protesters at the Royal Plaza. Security authorities have estimated a turnout of up to 30,000 people.
The rally site and adjacent areas, including Rajdamnoen Avenue, could not hold more than 80,000 people.
Due to the design of the plaza, a crowd of 20,000 to 30,000 people would show an impressive picture as viewed through camera lenses.
In February 2005, the PAD chose the plaza to kick off its street protests to remove Thaksin. Likewise, Pitak Siam might be expecting its plaza rally to achieve a similar momentum to that of the PAD's in order to root out the Thaksin's legacy.
When the PAD spearheaded the opposition movement against the Thai Rak Thai-led government, the then ruling party countered by portraying the yellow shirts as undemocratic forces.
When the PAD again resumed street protests in 2008, two governments, led by Samak Sundaravej and Somchai Wongsawat, tried to crush, rather than reason with, the opposition movement.
When the red shirts descended on the streets, the Democrats failed to engage them in talks in order to address their grievances.
Fast-forward to the present. Pitak Siam has been protesting against corruption and populism. And in its rebuttals, the ruling Pheu Thai Party is voicing suspicion about a pretext to derail democratic rule.
While Pitak Siam and the government are trying to point the finger at one another for harming democracy, the two seem to have let a mutual suspicion cloud their judgement on finding common ground to settle their differences over populism and charter rewrite.
If the rival camps insist on their way or the highway, then politics would veer off course with untold damage to the country.
It is perhaps time for Thaksin to pick up the phone and start talking to his opponents, starting with Boonlert. What is the point of wielding his popularity when he could not live in his own home?
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/13/thaksin-should-not-overlook-the-pad-lesson/
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