General Boonlert Kaewprasit appears to be fond of toying with numbers. Before Pitak Siam's Oct 28 anti-government rally at the Royal Turf Club, or Nang Loerng race course, the retired general said it would be the first but also the last if it managed to attract only a few thousand participants.
It turned out that well over 10,000 people joined in the protest, which was beyond his wildest imagining – thanks to the support of the Santi Asoke sect and the multi-coloured group, which chipped in with thousands of their members. The People's Alliance for Democracy did not officially take part, but its leaders made it clear its members would participate if they so wished.
Buoyed by this unexpected high turnout, which also caught the government off-guard, Gen Boonlert has set his sight on one million participants for the second, mega rally scheduled for Nov 24-25 at the Royal Plaza. He said that if the target was not met, he would not organise another demonstration.
One million people? That is a hell lot of people. I have no idea whether the retired general seriously meant what he said or not, because, I bet, he could never mobilise such a huge number of people now or even in the future.
The Royal Plaza itself – the site of the planned second rally by the Pitak Siam group – can accommodate at best about 50,000 people. So how likely is it that one million people will gather together at one site?
The only time in my life that I witnessed such a huge crowd, estimated by various media at from 500,000 to almost one million people, was during the peak of the student-led uprising in October 1973 against the Thanom-Prapass-Narong dictatorial regime, when I was then a green reporter. The sea of human beings was simply breathtaking as it extended as far as the eye could see. ajdamnoen Klang road was jam-packed from Sanam Luang to Chalerm Thai theatre and into Rajdamnoen Nai road to as far as the Royal Plaza.
It took weeks for the student leaders then to mobilise such numbers. Even though it may take less time to mobilise such a huge number of people today, thanks to improved communications including smart phones and the internet -- which were beyond wildest fantasy some 40 years back -- the logistic problem of just bringing in one million people alone is a herculean task. If 100 people are to be transported in in one bus, at least 10,000 buses will be needed.
Gen Boonlert must have foreseen the transport problem, I believe. And the impossible one million target which he set seems to be a face-saving ploy to end the campaign against the government after the Nov 24-25 rally, which will have served the group's objective – that is, to remind the government that the anti-Thaksin people are still a force to be reckoned with and should not be underestimated.
The retired general's cheap talk about a coup to topple the government rings hollow and backfires on the Pitak Siam movement itself. Just as all the allegations about a plot to overthrow the government by the government people and Pheu Thai MPs are pure imagination and unsubstantiated or backed up in any way by any credible intelligence.
Talking about the credibility of the government's intelligence network, one may wonder, surely, if their reports are credible, then how could the chief of the National Security Council Lt-Gen Paradon Pattanathabutr and Defence Minister Sukhampol Suwannatat believe in the alleged assassination plot against deposed former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra and toe the line of Panthongtae, Thaksin's son, who claimed the arms seized in Tachilek in Burma were part of the conspiracy.
All the rhetoric about a coup plot and assassination conspiracy will disappear once the censure debate scheduled for Nov 25-26 is over.
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About the author
Writer: Veera PrateepchaikulPosition: Former Editor
Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/13/seh-ai-toying-with-numbers/
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