Thailand remains among those countries that have failed to institutionalise civilian control over the military, according to an expert on the military's role in Asia.
Professor Aurel Croissant, co-author of the new book "Democratization and Civilian Control in Asia", said Thailand ranks fifth in the world in terms of having the most number of military coups - 18 "successful" over the past eight decades.
Comparing Thailand to Pakistan, Croissant, who teaches political science at Heidelberg University in Germany, said the risk of a putsch remains high.
"Thailand is a high-risk coup-prone country," he said yesterday at a public forum on democratic control of the military, organised by Chulalongkorn University's Institute of Security and International Studies (ISIS) and the Friedrich Ebert Foundation (FES).
Croissant predicted it would be a long time before Thailand can achieve genuine civilian control over the military. It will depend on not just the military refraining from getting involved in politics but also on strong civilian support and consensus that civilians should have oversight of the military.
"There's no consensus on that they will not pull the military into political conflicts," said Croissant, who jointly conducted research on the topic over four years in which more than 180 people in the Kingdom were interviewed.
Croissant said the military's power can be exerted not just through the staging of coups d'etat but also through influence over the government's decision-making processes. The lack of coups doesn't automatically mean that civilian oversight exists, he said. "The military can exercise control over policy because democracy is weak."
However, unlike conventional wisdom, the German professor sees the September 19, 2006 coup as a sign of the army's "eroding military control" over Thai politics and society.
He added that there are three factors that contribute to coup risks - the strengths or weaknesses of civil society, the strength of legitimacy of the political regime and the frequency of military coups in the past.
"[The Army] has a learning curve and learns how to conduct a coup," Croissant said.
Army Colonel Teeranan Nandhakwang, deputy director of the Strategic and Security Affairs Division of the National Defence College, said it is becoming increasingly difficult to stage a coup in Thailand, thanks to advanced communications technology possessed by citizens.
Teeranan said he agreed with Croissant that it would take a long time before Thailand achieves civilian oversight of its military. However, he stressed that Thailand is in a "transitional period" toward that goal.
Panitan Wattanayagorn, Chulalongkorn University political scientist and former government spokesperson under the Abhisit Vejjajiva administration, argued that civilian oversight is increasing. He cited the example of the Internal Security Operations Command, which he said is under civilian control and is attached to the PM's Office Ministry.
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2013/05/10/civilian-control-of-military-long-way-off-expert-says/
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