Apec exposed to higher energy import demand

By 2030 Asia Pacific will swiftly move from a net exporter of natural gas and coal to a net importer, due to increasing demand in the region which is now the world's major manufacturing base.

A new study from Asia Pacific Energy Research Centre, which is part of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec), estimated that oil import will increase from 36 percent of total oil demand in 2002 to 52 percent in 2030.

"The energy demand and supply balance will become tighter over the outlook period, as the region's annual primary energy production is expected to grow at only 1.5 percent, which is significantly lower compared with total primary energy demand growth of 2.0 percent per year," APERC said.

Likewise, with the exception of New Zealand, Canada, China and Hong Kong,

China, the remaining APEC economies will improve their Energy Diversity Indicator - that assesses the distribution of energy sources in the primary energy mix over the outlook

period. However, the Energy Diversity Indicator is expected to decrease slightly for APEC as a whole, reflecting China's share in total primary energy demand.

Apec oil import dependency will rise from 35 per cent in 2002 to 44 per cent by 2030, and four current net oil exporting economies - Indonesia, Malaysia, Papua New Guinea and Vietnam − will become net oil importers by 2030.

APEC's coal demand is expected to more than double from 1,570 million tonnes of equivalent (Mtoe) in 2002 to 3,366 mtoe in 2030, growing at an annual

rate of 2.8 per cent - the fastest annual growth rate among fossil fuels, due in part to

cost competitiveness and coal's wide availability compared with other fuels.

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