Kasikorn Research Centre has raised its gross domestic product growth projection for the fourth quarter to 13% compared with the same period last year, from the previous forecast of 12.5%.
The high figure for the fourth quarter reflects the low base at the end of last year when the economy was crippled by floods. The economy in the fourth quarter of 2011 contracted by more than 9%.
K-Research, an affiliate of Kasikornbank, maintained its growth projection for all of 2012 at 5% on the back of lower-than-expected economic expansion in the third quarter.
The National Economic and Social Development Board (NESDB), the government's planning agency and compiler of official economic data, expects the economy to expand by 5.5% this year.
The NESDB earlier had forecast expansion of up to 6% but reduced the figure in light of a continuing slowdown in exports, mainly to recession-hit Europe.
K-Research said the economic outlook in October showed strong improvements in various sectors, including production and exports.
The low growth figures last year and the current economic expansion in Asia, particularly China, would help spur the Thai economy to grow at a higher rate than earlier projections in the last quarter, the company added.
Positive factors that would spur the economy in the last quarter include an increase in domestic consumption, notably high automobile sales as first-time buyers race to qualify for tax breaks before they expire at year-end.
Improved private investment and government spending in infrastructure development projects would also contribute to expansion, the centre said, adding that exports would rise 20% from the last quarter of 2011 when shipments contracted sharply.
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/12/01/kbank-q4-gdp-growth-13/
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