It was not smooth sailing for US President Obama, going through one of the most cynical, expensive and contentious presidential campaigns in recent history. The headwind was strong, as economic disappointment and uncertainties haunted him at every turn. But Americans have decided to give him a second chance to fulfill his campaign promises and finish the job.
His disciplined and ruthless campaign team, the young college students and first-time voters, the women, the ethnic minorities, and - in the last crucial days - former president Bill Clinton, helped push him over the 270 electoral college hurdle.
However, from this day on it will largely be Barrack Obama himself who writes his own legacy, and in many ways the fate of his party. The waning of the euphoric support for the president in 2008 could turn into animosity if his next four years become the same or similar to the last four.
There were several apparent flaws in the first Obama term at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The president's inability to reach out and work across the aisle to build a real political coalition with the Republicans in Congress was notorious, and it became the number one campaign issue against him.
His putting all his political eggs in one "Obamacare" basket blinded him from other crucial reforms that were needed in financial structure and tax. His use of the bottom-line Keynesian fiscal apparatus to leverage public debt led to a record high national debt of over US$1 trillion, and a snail-paced "recovery" resulting in high and stubborn unemployment rates.
His support for unsustainable industries only caused a frosty relationship with the business community.
His inability to deal squarely with the impending so-called "fiscal cliff" - that is, the end of George Bush's across-the-board tax cuts, which will expire on December 31 - that created so much uncertainty in the financial and business communities. The money men have been holding off on new investments until they know whether the cliff will result, metaphorically, in a "sky dive," a "bungee jump", or a "bump".
Without effective action on the part of the president and Congress, by the beginning of 2013 the US$600 billion in tax increases and spending cuts will further hammer business and consumer spending and send the jobless rate through the roof. Such a worst-case scenario is what economists describe as the moment when the "manure hits the fan".
Each and every one of these issues warrants a new perspective and a changed approach from President Obama. The US's debt has already reached 100 per cent of its GDP.
How long can the Federal Reserve keep printing money before it turns into scrap paper?
Where and by how much can the budget be cut?
How can he strike a deal with the Republican-dominated House of Representatives on many contentious and difficult issues, especially after the heightened animosity between the Democrats and Republicans during the campaign?
How can he win back the hearts and minds of the business and financial community after four years of unclear fiscal policies and a mutually lukewarm relationship between him and them?
On foreign policy, the president benefited greatly from the able hand of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Her imminent departure, as she already announced, means that he will have to find another competent steward who can respond effectively to the existing, as well as the new, foreign policy challenges.
The new and still opaque leadership in China, and the Middle Kingdom's increasing readiness to flex its muscles, is one such challenge. The European Union's economic and financial woes, which have sent a ripple effect around the world, is yet another; the EU economy plus that of the US and Japan comprise about 60 per cent of the world's GDP.
The continuing war in Afghanistan, an imploding Syria, the consequences of the Arab Spring, the Iranian nuclear programme, and the Israel-Palestine issue are just some of the hard questions that are looking for good answers.
For Asia, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) launched in 2005 by Chile, New Zealand, Singapore and later Brunei was reinvigorated by the US's active participation in 2010. Next year will be a pivotal one for the TPP, as members are concluding negotiations on trade. However, China's absence from the TPP, which now comprises 11 members, could prove costly.
Will Asia be divided into competing trading blocs, between one led by China and the other the United States? For the US, its participation in the TPP is just one means of ensuring its renewed and continued involvement in the region. At the same time, its push for strong standards on intellectual property, labour and the environment may make the participation of emerging economies more difficult.
To his credit, President Obama, during his first term, had the courage to disappoint the public when he felt it was the right thing to do. Healthcare reform is one example. He also dared to tell the public that the US could not compete as a result of its outdated education system, and that the country must not look to keep certain jobs that cannot be prevented from going overseas. Instead, he embarked on a long and grinding education reform process that, if successful, will be one of his presidential legacies.
Renowned movie director Woody Allen, in a Washington Post op-ed piece, commented that there were two paths that would be determined by this election. One path, he said, led to despair and utter hopelessness; the other to total extinction. "Let us pray," he cynically contended, "we have the wisdom to choose correctly."
The reality may not be as dire as Woody Allen paints. Yesterday, the people of the United States made their choice. If President Obama meant what he said in his victory speech - that a lot of things that happened over the last year and during the campaign had taught him many valuable lessons - it will be him, the new comeback kid, who will prove that there is a third and better way.
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/08/obama-gets-another-chance-to-prove-his-path-is-the-right-one/
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