Obama faces tough challenges in Asia

Written By Unknown on Thursday, 8 November 2012 | 14:38






Barack Obama has little time to bask in the euphoria of his re-election as US president. Piled in his foreign policy in-tray are daunting challenges - an increasingly assertive China, nuclear-armed North Korea and the still-volatile Middle East.





With the campaign pressure now off, the first African-American US president will need to exert a more active and flexible diplomacy to maintain US global leadership amid its diminishing world power and fiscal constraints.



The toughest task internationally for Obama may be China, which is now finalising its fifth-generation leadership lineup led by Vice President Xi Jinping.



Experts largely agree that Obama will continue to walk the fine line between competition and cooperation, rather than taking a confrontational approach while Washington is weakened by fiscal deficit, sluggish economic recovery and high unemployment, not to mention other security quandaries.



"During the election campaign period, Obama, along with his Republican challenger Mitt Romney, remained quite conservative over China so they wouldn't seem weak. But that was all election strategy and rhetoric. Well aware of the reality, Obama will not make affairs concerning Beijing more complicated or aggravated than now," said professor Chun In-young of Seoul National University.



"Xi Jinping, facing piles of domestic issues such as the widening income gap, may not push for too aggressive a policy for the time being, although he said earlier that Japan's nationalising of the disputed islands in the East China Sea was a 'farce' - some tough rhetoric."



However, some caution that the Sino-US rivalry could deepen as Xi may seek to project the image of a strong leader tasked with reviving Chinese pride based on its growing economic and military strength.



"Xi grew up watching the rise of China, and has risen to the top while being affected by and much exposed to Chinese nationalist sentiment," said professor Suh Jin-young of Korea University. "Given this, under Xi, China could get more assertive in its foreign policy."



The changing security landscape in East Asia has been a source of concern for South Korea and other regional stakeholders as China moves to fix what it sees as an imbalance in an international order the US has fostered since the end of World War II.



The two powers' competition for regional supremacy spiked early this year when Washington unveiled its new strategy to focus its military priorities on Asia-Pacific.



In response, China has continuously upgraded its military tactics and weapons systems.



In September, China launched its first aircraft carrier, the Liaoning, which the US views as part of Beijing's anti-access/area-denial strategy, along with its development of increasingly sophisticated missile technology and stealth fighter jets.



"Since the late 1990s, China's defence industries have accelerated their RD amid China's shifting geostrategic interests, widening operational requirements of the People's Liberation Army, and comprehensive defence reforms," said Michael Raska, a researcher at Singapore's S Rajaratnam School of International Studies.



Another security challenge Obama faces in the region is North Korea, which some experts warn will continue a pattern of provoking the US with missile tests.



"For about 26 years, we have been struggling with North Korean nuclear issues. In the process, Seoul and Washington alike are fatigued over the pattern of Pyongyang launching provocations and winning rewards," said Nam Chang-hee, politics professor at Inha University.



"Seoul and Washington are expected to find a way to block North Korea from additionally developing nuclear technology and transferring fissile material as well as technology," said Nam.



Concerning its relationship with Japan, Washington is expected to continue to cement its alliance with Tokyo as it seeks to share the security burden in line with its belt-tightening measures.



Japan has been the centrepiece of America's regional power projection efforts. The Asian power is expected to hold elections within months. Shinzo Abe, a security hawk and leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, is expected to return to the premiership. "US-Japan relations will surely improve in the years to come. As the Democratic Party of Japan took power in 2009, ending a half century of almost unbroken LDP rule, some cracks in the alliance emerged. But with the LDP, their ties would become stronger," said Lee Choon-kun, security expert at the Korea Economic Research Institute.



Washington may take a cautious stance on Japan becoming overly nationalistic and conservative, but it would continue to use Japan as an influential partner in its regional hedging strategy against China, said Nam of Inha University.



For South Korea, the next several years in the relationship with the US are crucial as Seoul should revise a nuclear energy pact with Washington, which will expire in March 2014, and retake wartime operational control in December 2015.



The allies are now consulting on how to manage their combined forces in the event of an armed conflict, as the current Combined Forces Command is to be dissolved after the transfer of military control. Washington apparently wants Seoul to practice more restraint, as a counterstrike against North Korea could escalate into a full-blown war and could drag it into the feud amid anti-war sentiment in the US following a decade of war in Iraq and Afghanistan.



Washington also wants Seoul to join its global missile defence programme. While Japan has deepened missile shield cooperation with the US, Seoul has been reluctant so as not to provoke China and North Korea.



Last, but not least, Iran is a conundrum for Obama. Although Washington has led global sanctions against Tehran, there has been little headway in negotiations to persuade the Islamic Republic to renounce its nuclear programmes.



Along with Iran, the US should also restore support from Muslim society. Anti-American sentiment has spread across the Muslim community with anti-Islam videos going viral on the Internet in September.



Volatility in the Middle East, coupled with America's financial constraints could hamper its efforts to strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific.







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