Focus of Sino-Thai relations should be more than rice

MoU leaves too many issues unclear, but amid increasing US and Chinese interest in the region, policy-makers need a strategy to engage superpowers

A lot of attention has been garnered by the Thailand-China rice deal following the memorandum of understanding signed by Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao during the latter's visit to Bangkok last week.

There has been criticism over whether Thai farmers would actually gain from the deal. After all, China has bought about 300,000-400,000 tonnes of Thai rice per year.

The Thai government may not be able to sell more than it used to, in spite of the MoU, which does not spell out exactly how much rice Beijing would buy from Thailand. Critics have suggested the MoU was designed so that the Thai government could claim success in persuading the Chinese premier to sign the deal.

The Thai government placed high priority on the rice deal, partly to deflect public attention from the controversy over the rice-pledging scheme, which has been criticised by many for squandering taxpayers' money at the expense of the competitiveness of Thai farmers and exporters.

The MoU does not commit China's government to purchasing anything. The Chinese government did not even commit to purchase 5 million tonnes of rice from Thailand in three years, as Bangkok had been pressing.

Thailand needs China to import rice to help it dispose of its huge stockpile of about 6 million tonnes accumulated under its high-priced pledging scheme. Unfortunately, there is no government-to-government deal at all now.

In addition, it is still unclear at what price the Chinese government would buy rice from Thailand. The level of the rice price is important because it would not only influence the rice price on the world market, but also reveal the amount of loss the Thai government has to bear if the rice is sold at a price lower than what the government paid for the pledging. Also, the MoU can be cancelled at any time.

The two sides also touched upon developing high-speed trains in Thailand. Foreign governments have expressed interest in having their private sectors participate in the mega-infrastructure project. The Chinese premier's visit to Thailand has reaffirmed the Chinese interest to participate in the project.

The rice deal, nonetheless, is simply a small issue in the big picture of Thai-Chinese relations. The Thai government should have focused firmly on Sino-Thai relations to ensure the long-term interest of the two countries and the region where Thailand is a key stakeholder.

Bangkok should seriously work on the diplomatic strategy to ensure that the interest of Thailand would be sufficiently heard by the Chinese partner. For instance, Thailand currently holds the rotating position of Asean coordinator for Asean-Sino cooperation. Thailand should do more to bring China to regional forums to discuss the concerns of Asean such as the South China Sea territorial dispute.

The Asean failure to seriously address the issue will test the strength of the grouping as a regional bloc to increase their bargaining power in talks with partners. China's reluctance to address this issue with her Asean counterparts can also be seen as a refusal to treat Asean on par.

Now that there is greater focus on Asean by both the US and China, Thailand should also fine-tune its diplomatic approach to ensure that the country's diplomatic stance will not be seen as being driven by any particular superpower. Thailand and Asean will have to work constructively with both the US and China to ensure the Asean spirit of centrality, while our partners will treat us with respect.

And this issue requires strategic planning by Thai policy-makers. Unfortunately, the Thai government focused more on the rice deal during Wen's trip, which is not guaranteed to yield any concrete results.

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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/25/focus-of-sino-thai-relations-should-be-more-than-rice/