Palestinians ride bicycles near a billboard thanking Iran for its help during Hamas
The Israeli city of Sderot lies a mere 11 kilometres from Gaza City. Standing on a hill in one part of Sderot, as you look towards Gaza, you see a barbed-wire fence in uninhabited terrain. And yet from somewhere beyond the range of vision, thousands of rockets have fallen overs the years on the city (although in the most recent wave of violence, probably with less intensity than previous barrages from Gaza). And although the small population tries to go about life as normally as possible, roadside bomb shelters and the "Colour Red" alarm that gives citizens 15 seconds to rush to them are a way of life.
On racks outside the Sdeirot Police Station lie an assortment of rusting, misshapen projectiles - Hamas's Qassam rockets. Since Israel completely pulled out of Gaza in 2005, from time to time Hamas has tested not only its own ability and the range of its missiles, but also Israel's patience. The last major Israeli retaliation, "Operation Cast Lead" in 2008, took a huge toll on Hamas and Gaza, with more than 1,000 Palestinians killed.
A period of relative calm followed, and it seemed the Islamist organisations in Gaza had learned a lesson. This period also seemed to coincide with Fatah and Hamas ending their mutual hostility and forging a reconciliation that can, at best, be termed fragile.
And so it was surprising, earlier this month, that Hamas suddenly went down the same path again, this time with Iranian-inspired Fajr rockets that can travel even further than the Qassam. What is not clear so far is whether the Fajr 5 rockets were smuggled into Gaza, or built locally. The Fajr 5 rockets can travel about 75 kilometres, while the Qassams have a range of only about 15 kilometres; Tel Aviv, Israel's financial capital, is about 70 kilometres from Gaza. With sirens going off in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv - which has generally been insulated from the conflict - the warning signs were clear for Israel. A red line had been crossed. With the election season coming up, the duo of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defence Minister Ehud Barak had to prove their security credentials. And so "Operation Pillar of Defence" was launched.
According to Israeli figures, 933 rockets from Gaza hit Israel, while 421 were intercepted by the Iron Dome air anti-missile system. Israeli air raids on Gaza took out Hamas's military chief, inflicted huge damage and left more than 150 dead. The fact that many of the rockets from Gaza fell on Ashdod and Ashkelon along the coastline, and Kiryat Malakhi, made it obvious that Hamas was indeed testing its ability to hit Tel Aviv. Despite the lethal retaliation by Israel, Hamas is likely to take many positives from this operation, the most important being that Israel's key cities are within its strike range.
Ironically, in the efforts to arrive at a ceasefire, the role of Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and his government remained peripheral. This points to the disconnect between the West Bank and Gaza, between Fatah and Hamas. Despite reconciliation efforts between Palestine's two parties in the aftermath of the Egyptian revolution, the glue doesn't seem to be holding. In the West Bank, while there is quiet admiration for Hamas's ability to confront Israel militarily, something that Fatah has almost completely eschewed, its ideals and ideology are unwelcome.
Hamas's latest strategy of drawing Israel into a military conflict defies reason. For the achievement of landing a few projectiles on enemy territory, many of which Israel succeeded in shooting down, it is inflicting enormous suffering on its own people. Gaza is the poorest of Palestinian towns, with a very high population density.
Surely, Hamas knew Israel was going to hit back. Which raises the question, was there a larger agenda to the latest upsurge in hostilities? Was Hamas goaded into sparking the conflagration to take Arab eyes off the conflict in Syria, where its benefactor and Iran's sole ally in the region, the Assad regime, has become persona non grata? Hassan Nasrallah, the Lebanon-based chief of Hezbollah, the role model for Hamas, last week urged Arab rulers to stop focusing on Syria and instead arm Hamas to carry on its fight against Israel.
"Where are the Arabs who are sending arms to the opposition in Syria? They do not have the courage to send one bullet to Gaza," Nasrallah said, in response to suggestions by some Arab countries to arm the rebels fighting the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad. Nasrallah also warned Israel that the whole country, from north to south, was within range of its missiles.
It must be pointed out that it was Hezbollah's repeated barrage of northern Israel that finally forced Israel to withdraw from the south of Lebanon. Hezbollah claimed victory, and since then Hamas has been inspired to walk the same path.
On Monday, Gaza-based Islamic jihad leader Ramadan Shallah said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had called him and Hamas Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh to congratulate them on their battle with Israel.
"Iran has been providing us with the support we needed to defend ourselves in the face of the Zionist occupation. Iran supported us militarily and financially, and with everything we needed to stand steadfast on our land," Shallah said. "We appreciate that, and hope that all the Arab countries do the same."
Did Hamas once again become a pawn in the hands of Iran, which may have wanted to go through a dress rehearsal should Israel attack its nuclear installations, an item always on Israel's security agenda? The idea of having to repulse Hezbollah attacks in the north, Hamas's in the south, and Iranian missiles too, is not a scenario Israeli security think-tanks have ignored. And this scenario looms heavily in every plan for a pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear installations.
The latest round of attacks and casualties is also a lesson for Israel that the peace process with the Palestinians cannot be kept in cold storage forever. Since 1993 every Israeli government has launched its own peace process, never mind the progress on the ground. But in the last four years under Netanyahu, even the pretence is not being seen as worth the effort. And that further weakens the standing of Palestinian President Abbas. The status quo cannot be a solution, and without any movement in resolving the core conflict, any ceasefire will only be a prelude to the next outbreak of hostilities.
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/30/a-calculated-venture-or-another-foolish-adventure/
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