The Yingluck Shinawatra administration's concerns about next week's scheduled anti-government rally by Pitak Siam seem to be increasing daily. One clear sign of this is the change in attitude of Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yoobamrung, who is known to command a large intelligence network.
Before the group's first rally on October 28, it was dismissed as being likely to draw only a small number of people. But more than 10,000 showed up, dealing a slap in the face to intelligence officers.
Emboldened, Pitak Siam leader General Boonlert Kaewprasit declared that either he or the government would have to go after his group's second rally on November 24.
Although it took a little time, Chalerm has now ordered the highest level of preparation for the rally, including the deployment of 50,000 police officers to maintain order. In the meantime, he has ordered National Police chief General Adul Saengsingkaew to take charge of the situation personally.
Adul himself can draw on lessons from the past. He has asked the government to invoke the Internal Security Act, not only to give the officers a mandate to manage the situation more aggressively, such as by announcing area or weapons restrictions, but also to allow him to request military support in the event of serious incidents or emergencies.
More important, the imposition of the law would establish a hierarchy of command. Responsibility would fall not only on the operating officers. The previous government of Abhisit Vejjajiva imposed the act just befpre the red shirts' rally in March 2010, before elevating the security situation to an emergency decree.
At Parliament, closed-circuit cameras have been installed while vans and emergency ladders have been prepared in case Prime Minister Yingluck, ministers and MPs need to be evacuated.
The question is, what is frightening the government so badly? Has the government received some sort of signal?
The estimated numbers of protesters planning to attend vary according to the source, but at a minimum, 50,000 are expected. The Royal Plaza cannot contain that many protesters, and they will likely spill over to occupy an area stretching as far as Parliament House, where the censure debate is scheduled to start on November 25, the day after the rally starts.
The protesters will include the "old faces" who joined previous anti-Thaksin rallies, and the "newcomers", potentially including middle-class voters who have lost patience with the government or Thai politics in general, as well as farmers disappointed in the government's administration.
A large turnout itself might not be a problem, so long as the protest goes peacefully. A bigger worry is possible interference by a third party with an agenda, which could create an emergency.
The government might be less worried about Boonlert's group than about other groups secretly supporting the protesters. It must also keep an eye on the red shirts, who are preparing counter-protest mobs in Bangkok's adjacent provinces.
The government cannot be blamed for taking precautions and making preparations. But there is a danger that heavy-handed measures could backfire and instigate more people to come out.
The more people who show up, the greater the chance for ill-intentioned people to cause incidents.
At the moment, the protesters might have the advantage. Assuming the government is not ousted, if the rally goes peacefully, the people can gear up for the next rally. The government on the other hand will be responsible if any violence occurs.
Reading the situation wisely while preparing thoroughly will be the only way out for the government.
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Article source: http://www.thethailandlinks.com/2012/11/17/pitak-siam-rally-security-a-major-headache-for-govt/
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